Baseball Betting Picks
For handicappers who want to consistently make winning baseball betting picks, there are a lot of elements that must be taken into account. Most bettors struggle because they don't understand the idea of expected value. They fail to find strong picks that will win over the course of time and instead focus on trying to be perfect every single day.
A huge part of baseball handicapping is being able to accept that you're not going to hit every single underdog. You have to be willing to lose every now and then on those picks, and understand that you'll come out ahead in the long run.
What are some other things to know if winning baseball picks are your goal?
Avoid Mirage Pitchers
Some pitchers put together dazzling starts to the season or piece together a string of great outings. Some of these guys are living on the edge, walking batters and giving up warning track fly balls. If you don't put in the research and do your homework, you might think that these lucky pitchers have made some adjustments.
Perhaps you'll think they've turned the corner. In reality, some pitchers are just getting lucky for a while and their numbers are bound to regress to the mean. Instead of falling for a mirage pitcher based upon his ERA, consider these factors to understand how he's really performing:
- Strikeout to walk ratio
- Ground ball to fly ball ratio
- Home runs surrendered per 9 innings
- Swinging strike percentage
Look for those pitchers who can consistently miss bats and keep the ball within the strike zone. You don't want to get caught with your money on a mirage pitcher on the day he comes back to the mean. You'd rather avoid those guys who are living on the knife's edge.
Avoid Laying Huge Juice
When making baseball betting picks, it is almost always a terrible idea to lay -300 or higher on a game. When you are paying -360 on a baseball game, you will need to win a very high percentage to be profitable. More times than not, these are sucker bets and the book is raking based upon the huge juice that players lay on these matchups.
Though it might seem like a sure thing and easy money in your pocket, losing one or two of these big moneyline favorites can set you and your bankroll back immensely.
Playing the Over when the Home Team is Favored
If you encounter a situation where a home team is favored heavily and you want to bet the over, think again. Many players don't realize that these are losing baseball betting picks more often than not. The reasoning is quite simple.
In those situations, the home team is going to win the game more times than not. That creates many situations where handicappers are betting the over in a 8.5 inning game. If you are on the over, you will want the full 9 innings to help make your number.