Baseball Betting Tips
Every bettor worth his salt is willing to listen to good tips. The fact of the matter is that you never truly have something mastered, even if you have spent years perfecting your craft. This is especially true with baseball betting, given the nature of the game.
Analysis is constantly evolving, which can be a very good thing for bettors who stay on the cutting edge. So what are some baseball betting tips that will put you ahead of the public and give you a chance to make some money each year?
The following are good things to keep in mind.
Making Money Early on New Ballparks
Baseball is unique in the fact that its ballparks are all different. This actually impacts play and can change run scoring values at many of the league's venues. Parks like San Diego's Petco are notoriously friendly to pitchers, while Yankee Stadium is a hitter's paradise.
Where you can make money is when a new ballpark comes into play. Every so often, a team will build a new stadium, and there will be some uncertainty about how the park will play. If you do your homework and read local reports on how the park is treating fly balls, you can make great money early in the year.
For example, the Mets' Citi Field and the Twins' Target Field are both pitcher-friendly parks that have opened in the last two seasons. Betting the under often before this became common knowledge would have earned bettors some cash.
The Difference between ERA and FIP
In advanced baseball analysis, there is something called Fielding Independent Pitching. The formula was developed many years ago by a man named Voros McCracken, and it sought to separate the things a pitcher could control and the things he could not. When assessing pitching matchups, you need to recognize FIP.
Some pitchers carry a higher than average ERA, but their FIP says that they are pitching similarly to career norms. They are striking out hitters at high rates, walking few guys, and controlling home runs. These pitchers will likely be undervalued for a short time until their ERAs regress to the mean. You can ride the wave by betting the under on these pitchers for a short while.
Things that Depress Scoring
Many bettors look for reasons to bet the over because they love to see runs cross the plate. If you are smart, you will find reasons to bet the under. There are plenty of things that often go overlooked by bettors and they have a direct impact on the game's total.
The following are some things to look for when betting the under, as they correlate to depressed scoring:
- Two backup catchers facing one another
- Teams playing early games on getaway day, where batting practice is not taken on the field
- Two teams with elite defenses playing one another
- Two pitchers with FIPs that are lower than their ERAs
These things will usually lead to less scoring and many bettors leave them out of their analysis. Keep them in mind and you will have success.