How to Win at Baseball Betting
Baseball handicapping is quite a chore and those who do well understand that it is sometimes a grind. The baseball season is long, which makes patience and money management a key to success. If you are going to win at baseball betting, then you need to understand things that most people don't understand.
If you are betting just like everyone else, then you will lose alongside them. So what are these things that it pays to know? You should understand the basics of sabermetric analysis, be able to assess pitching matchups, and account for the little things that most bettors miss.
Sabermetrics and Baseball Betting
If you have been keeping up with baseball analysis at all, then you know that baseball is being viewed in a different light in 2010. There are different ways to look at the game and they make more sense. You should understand that certain statistics just don't provide a good picture of what teams and players are doing.
If you are going to find value with your bets, then you will have to have a clearer picture of what is actually happening on teh field. This means knowing that win-loss record isn't much good when analyzing pitchers, ERA has some serious issues, and batting average often doesn't tell the whole story.
When looking for alternative stats to provide more insight, consider these:
- Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) in place of Fielding Percentage
- Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in place of Batting Average
- Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in place of Earned Run Average
A solid knowledge base made up of these elements will give you the ability to spot value when it presents itself.
Assessing Pitching Matchups
As you probably know, baseball handicapping must start with the pitching matchups. As will be discussed later, this is not the only thing to understand, but it is probably the most important thing. Understand that pitchers who are striking people out and limiting walks will have success over the long term.
Even if a guy has struggled in recent outings, good strikeout to walk ratios
and controlling home runs will lead to enhanced success in the future.
Likewise, you don't want to overvalue pitchers who have been relatively
lucky. Guys who are giving up tons of fly balls, striking out few batters,
and walking a bunch of men are bound to fall off the map sooner or later.
They are ticking time bombs that you should bet against before the betting
public picks up on such things.
What Else Do I Need to Know?
If you want to win at baseball betting, then you have to use all available resources to find your edge. This might mean analyzing the umpire who will be calling balls and strikes. It might mean using the velocity charts at a place like Fangraphs.com to assess whether a pitcher is suffering from an undisclosed injury. You will want to consult Weather.com to see if the wind is blowing out in a certain park. These little things can turn games and turn a losing pick into a winner.